Low Carbon Emission Development Model with System Dynamic approach in Luwu regency

Abstract

Development of low carbon emissions System Dynamics Modeling that can be done is development in the mangrove sector. One of the forest ecosystems that is quite good at carbon sequestration is the mangrove ecosystem which can store four times more carbon than tropical forests The system dynamics approach is carried out by understanding the dynamic behavior of a phenomenon and identifying changes in mangrove cover and emissions. The method used to see land use changes from year to year is the spatial analysis method, then the data is analyzed using a dynamic system. This research will be conducted in Luwu Regency, South Sulawesi Province. This research was carried out for 2 months, namely October 2021 to November 2021. The results of the analysis revealed that the area of mangrove cover decreased in 2011 reaching 3,014 Ha until in 2020 it reached 1,677 Ha, there are several types of land use that have changed in area, one of which is a decrease in primary dry forest land cover and secondary dry forest and an increase in area in settlements and agricultural land.  The results of the model simulation show that in the existing condition the mangrove area in the luwu regency in 2011 was 3,014 ha and in 2020 it was 2,507 ha, based on the BAU, the condition of the mangrove area in 2030 is estimated to be 2,895 ha, in 2045 it will be 2,511 ha and in 2060 it will be 2,199 ha. Analysis of Low Carbon Emission Development in Mangrove Ecosystems in Luwu Regency shows that the proportion of mangrove emission release and absorption reaches equilibrium by 2047 in a fair scenario