An Empirical Model of The Impact of Economic Growth on The Performance of Trans Papua Road Infrastructure Development: The Jayapura–Wamena Corridor

Abstract

This study develops an empirical model to quantify the impact of economic growth on the performance of road infrastructure development along the Trans Papua corridor (Jayapura–Wamena). Secondary data covering the period 2015–2024 were analyzed, including regional Gross Domestic Product (GRDP), government expenditure on infrastructure, investment realization, and physical road development indicators (road length completion, construction progress, and pavement condition index). A multiple linear regression model was employed to examine the relationship between economic variables and infrastructure performance. The results indicate that economic growth has a statistically significant positive effect on infrastructure development performance, with a regression coefficient of β = 0.62 (p < 0.01). Government infrastructure expenditure shows the strongest influence (β = 0.71, p < 0.01), followed by regional investment (β = 0.54, p < 0.05). The model demonstrates a high explanatory power with R² = 0.83, indicating that 83% of the variation in infrastructure performance is explained by the selected economic variables. Furthermore, elasticity analysis reveals that a 1% increase in GRDP leads to an estimated 0.58% improvement in road development performance. The findings confirm that economic growth plays a critical role in accelerating infrastructure delivery in remote regions. This study provides empirical evidence to support policy interventions that integrate economic planning with strategic infrastructure development, particularly in eastern Indonesia.