Analyzing Determinant Components on East Java Rice Surplus Contribution Using Dynamical System Approach

The Ministry of Agriculture has proclaimed rice as a main food commodity, beside corn, soybeans, meat and sugar. In order to achieve the target of the Ministry of Agriculture, East Java provincial government has stipulated a policy, focusing on rice surplus of 5 million tons in 2014. This attempt is to reach the surplus number through a wide selection of technological innovations (determinant component) that increases the productivity of rice (New Superior Variety/VUB, Site Specific Nutrient Management/SSNM, Integreted Crop Management/PTT, Jarwo/double row planting system, balanced fertilization, SOP harvest / postharvest), as well as an increase in Planting Index/IP by improving irrigation and food diversification program. By using a dynamical system approach (modeling), it can be measured the contribution of each determinant components in achieving surplus / rice self-sufficiency through simulation. The results of the simulation, it was known that the East Java’s rice surplus will continue to decline from 1,806,282 tons (2014) with 170% self-sufficiency index, fell to 1.706.771 tons (2017) and would be 1.367.901 tons (2025). This condition is due to the increasing number of population, agricultural area continues to shrink and productivity is relatively fixed. Index sufficiency / surplus will increase if there is an interference of educational policy to implement a massive exceed of VUB, SSNM, PTT, Jarwo, balanced fertilization, SOP harvest / post-harvest, IP increasing and the succession of diversification in East Java. A surplus of 4.7 million tons of rice in 2014 within East Java can be achieved by implementing massive educational policy movement of PTT and VUB (100% of the area), the application of SOP harvest / post-harvest to reach at least 50% of the area of paddy and controlling OPT strictly. The highest self-sufficiency index (281%) and a surplus of 5.22 million tons will be achieved in case of an interference in implementing policy of PTT jarwo (100% of the area) and an IP increasing amounted to 1.0 (additional areas that can be irrigated, 33.000 ha). Sustainable rice surplus would be achieved in case of an attempt to make food diversification program completely successful, strengthen family planning programs and strictly guard the Regulation No. 5/2012 on the minimum acreage of paddy fields that must be maintained.


Introduction
The Ministry of Agriculture proclaim that the rice, corn, soybeans, meat, milk and sugar as the five prominent food commodities.The targeted number of rice self-sufficiency is about 76.6 million tons of rice (10 million tons of rice surplus).Based on the data from the Central Statistics Agency (BPS 2011) until July 2011, Indonesian rice import has reached 1.57 million tons amounting to approximately 7.04 trillion rupiahs.The imports are primarily from Vietnam (892 thousand tons), Thailand (665.8 thousand tons), China (1.869 tons), India (1.146 tons), Pakistan (3.2 thousand tons), and some other countries (3.2 thousand tons).This condition requires Indonesian to recover food selfsufficiency issueandto comply with national rice necessity that proportionate to the high population growth of Indonesian within all region (Erwidodo et al., 1996;BKP-LPUI, 2002;Ariani and Ashari, 2003).Central statistics agency (BPS) calculates that the population growth rate in 2005 to 2010 is expected to reach 1.3%, in 2011 to 2015 by 1.18% and 0.82% in 2025 to 2030.While the National Development Planning Agency (BAPPENAS) estimates that by 2015 the population of Indonesia will reach approximately 243 million.Rice consumption per capita of Indonesia reaches 139 kg per year, consequently, 33.78 million tons of rice are needed.In 2030, rice necessity for foos will reach 59 million tons for the approximate total population 425 million people (Mulyana, 1998;Prabowo et al., 2012;Nugraha et al., 2007).
In order to profitably accomplish the target of the Ministry of Agriculture in rice self-sufficieny, East Java provincial government has promulgated a policy to accomplish 5 millions tons of rice surplus in 2014 (50% of the national target).The agricultural development policy decided and enacted by the central government / province to direct, encouragee, control and regulate the development to accomplish the objectives of agricultural development (Maxwell and Timothy, 1992;Simatupang, 2003;Departemen Pertanian, 2005).
It has been knownthat the attempts to achieve a rice surplus in East Java is obstructed by several things as follows: (1) implementation of regional autonomy, thus the policy and the implementation of agricultural development will be more decentralized, with the problems and challenges which are more complex, therefore it requires a dynamic and flexible policy according to changes in the strategic environment (Asyawati, 2002;Muhammadi et al., 2001;Tasrif M, 2004) Although the attempts to achieve rice surplus faces several obstacles, but there are opportunities to overcome these obstacles the long-term self-sufficiency has been considered by the East Java provincial government by issuing Local Regulation number 5/ 2012 to set a minimum area of agricultural land which required to be maintained.
To identify the contribution of each determinant component in achieving self-sufficiency / rice surplus, it has been designed an activity using a dynamic system approach (modeling).Modelling is compiled by identifying and arranging all of the barriers and opportunities in rice advancement (identified as variable / parameter) and to discover a causal relationship of the variables / parameters of the model compiler (Chechland, 1981;Richardson and Pugh, 1986;Suryani, 2006;Bloom, 2008).
The success of agricultural development is commonly followed by policy which are concerning the application of technology, the use of the means of production, commodities, prices of input-output and etc.
Agricultural development policy enacted by the government concentrates to direct, encourage, control and regulate development in order to accomplish the objectives of agricultural development (Saad, 1999;Simatupang, 2003).
During the implementation of development, problems or obstacles are typical, yet it should be immediately identified and solved (Suyamto, 2000).In the manner that the attainment of rice self-sufficiency program, it requires a solution for improving rice production and reducing the dependence on rice imports to fulfill the internal demand.
The problems related to the accomplishment of rice production need the modeling analysis system to determine the factors that either influence directly or indirectly the rice production.Modeling analysis can be taken as policy recommendations to encourage the attainment of rice self-sufficiency, particularly in East Java (Forrester, 1961;Sugianto et.al, 2002;Irawan. 2005;Pudjadi and Harisno. 2007) This agricultural development policy analysis is adjustable, prompt in implementing and generating output, as for inputingto make a decision in the local region (Suyamto, 2000).The preceding years experience indicates that the results of the policy analysis is able to support the precision of agriculture activity within the local area (Suyamto, 2000).According to Rusastra (2000), the agricultural development policy analysis can be categorized into two conditions as follows: (1) Anticipatory policy analysis aims to evaluate the ongoing policy and anticipate the new policy, and (2) Responsive policy that essentially responds to the actual issues during the enactment of policy.
The first step of model development is to identify the system that aims to provide an overview of the studied systems.This model development is designedin the form of diagram input component (input) with the environment system which produces an output (output), both expected and unexpected output.The picture is as shown in Figure 1.

Model Arrangement
All of the identification result of surplus obstacles and opportunities has been formulated in the form of causal loop diagram / CLD (Figure 2), through focus group discussions in which many stakeholders were involved.CLD is a diagram that illustrates the interaction between the parameters or variables in dynamic systems consisting of consumption and production subsystems.
After CLD has been arranged, the next step is to collect the data or information in accordance with CLD components.Data collection through field observations and followed up by FGD for comprehending the data and information involving farmers, extension workers or officers and policy makers.Before the primary data collected, literature review has been carried out, particularly to obtain quantitative secondary data (Table 1).
Before conducting the simulation, it is necessary to validate the model to test the appropriateness of the developed model which is compatible with field circumstance.
The validation of the model has been made for the total population, area and production   1).
According to Suryani (2006), the model is already consistent with the real circumstance of the field, if MSE is <5%.

Simulation Results
The simulation results show that if intervention is not conducted (action program), then the East-Java rice surplus will be declined steadily from 2014 amounted to 1,806,282 tons (with an index of 170% selfsufficiency), in 2017 to 1,706,771 tons in 2025 amounted to 1,367,901 tons (Figure 3).This is due to the increasing number of population; according to the rate of land conver-  3 and Figure 4).minimum acreage of paddy fields that must be maintained.
through the identification and implementation of rice surplus.Determinant component of rice surplus which is also an innovation technology are identified as the VUB (Inpari), SSNM, PTT, Jarwo row, balanced fertilization, SOP harvest / post-harvest.In addition the success of the diversification program and IP enhancement through an improved irrigation systems are also needed to be taken into account (the current IP 1.86).

FGD
suggestions regarding the achievement of rice self-sufficiency in East Java uses dynamic system andcorrelateseveral factors that influence in rice production either directly or indirectly toward targets produc-tion of rice self-sufficiency within East Java in 2014.There are two approaches to obtain the information.The first is identifying the problem directly in the field and obtaining sources of the data or information from the subject or institution that associated with soy-agribusiness.The applied procedures in this study are: 1. Identifying the problem and supporting factors that either related directly or indirectly to the attainment of rice self-sufficiency through a review of the literature.2. Identifying the problem through the implementation of RRA (Rapid Rural Appraisal) and further analysis through

Figure 1 .
Figure 1.Input-Output Diagram of Paddy Production System

Table 1 .
The variables/parameters and values used